BREXIT TRADE TALKS SCENARIOS SESSIONS
Brexit trade talks scenarios sessions
At the stroke of midnight on the 30th June, the deadline for seeking an extension to the UK-EU transitional arrangements quietly expired. The choice is now straightforward: deal or no deal. Either outcome means new frictions to trade with Europe, but the latter path would undoubtedly have more serious economic consequences. As the clock ticks down on negotiations that have so far failed to make a breakthrough, Lexington has assembled a senior political team to help clients explore how the drama might play out over the next six months.
Our scenario planning sessions follow a popular series of Brexit wargames that we ran in 2019 and earlier this year. These sessions work as a small (virtual) structured 1.5hr-2hr discussion guided by Sue Beeby (former HMT and Department of Health SpAd), Paul Harrison (former Downing Street Press Secretary), Declan McHugh (former Labour SpAd and adviser) and Paul McGrade (former foreign office diplomat).
Now that the final legal point to request an extension to the transition period has passed, the discussion covers the binary choice the government faces over the next few months, between a compromise deal or a no-deal exit from transition arrangements in January 2021. In assessing the relative likelihood of these scenarios – and in particular where the government might compromise to secure a deal – we address some key questions including:
- when and how decisions will be made, and who the key figures are;
- what drives No10 decision-making;
- what certainty will business have this year, and what is likely to be pushed back to 2021; and
- how will the government use its new regulatory and other powers to mitigate some of the new trade frictions, and respond to the post-Covid 19 challenges?
We also discuss some of the main issues for business under these scenarios including tariffs, customs checks, mutual recognition challenges, a possible phased introduction of changes, sector-specific deals and what this means for trade with and through Northern Ireland. Finally we are happy to discuss how business should approach political engagement on the trade talks: timing, targets and prioritisation.
If you would like to book a slot, or for more information, please contact Declan McHugh ASAP and we can make the necessary arrangements.